The table shows the result, xPTS shows the quality of play. Below both clubs sit side by side on every metric: where the gap is real and where luck made it.
| Torino | Monza | |
|---|---|---|
| Place | 14 | 15 |
| Points | 4 | 4 |
| xPTS | 5 | 8.7 |
| Δ points − xPTS | −1.0 | −4.7 |
| xG per match | 1.01 | 1.98 |
| xGA per match | 1.54 | 1.48 |
| Scored | 5 | 8 |
| Conceded | 8 | 12 |
By quality of play Monza is ahead: 8.7 xPTS against 5.0. In the table they are level. The gap between points and play — Torino: −1.0, Monza: −4.7.
Expected points over the coming rounds: Torino — 6.2, Monza — 8.0.