The table shows the result, xPTS shows the quality of play. Below both clubs sit side by side on every metric: where the gap is real and where luck made it.
| Udinese | Monza | |
|---|---|---|
| Place | 15 | 16 |
| Points | 4 | 4 |
| xPTS | 5.2 | 9.4 |
| Δ points − xPTS | −1.2 | −5.4 |
| xG per match | 1.28 | 1.87 |
| xGA per match | 2.16 | 1.6 |
| Scored | 9 | 9 |
| Conceded | 13 | 15 |
By quality of play Monza is ahead: 9.4 xPTS against 5.2. In the table they are level. The gap between points and play — Udinese: −1.2, Monza: −5.4.
Expected points over the coming rounds: Udinese — 5.4, Monza — 8.4.