Bundesliga fantasy: who to pick for Round 10
The list comes from two things: how much a player creates per 90 minutes (xG + xA) and how favourable his club's next match is. We know nothing about injuries or rotation — this is a hint, not a line-up.
Who to pick
Output per 90 minutes multiplied by the points his club is expected to take in the next match.
| Player | Club | Opponent | xG+xA per 90 | Club's chance | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ismael Saibari |  Bayern Munich | home to 1. FC Köln | 1.55 | 87% | 1.39 |
| Harry Kane | Bayern Munich | home to 1. FC Köln | 1.54 | 87% | 1.38 |
| Michael Olise | Bayern Munich | home to 1. FC Köln | 1.12 | 87% | 1.00 |
| Luis Díaz | Bayern Munich | home to 1. FC Köln | 1.08 | 87% | 0.97 |
| Rômulo |  RB Leipzig | away to Union Berlin | 1.19 | 72% | 0.92 |
| Patrik Schick |  Bayer Leverkusen | home to Paderborn | 1.03 | 68% | 0.76 |
| Antonio Nusa | RB Leipzig | away to Union Berlin | 0.88 | 72% | 0.68 |
| Christopher Nkunku | RB Leipzig | away to Union Berlin | 0.87 | 72% | 0.67 |
| Tidiam Gomis | RB Leipzig | away to Union Berlin | 0.86 | 72% | 0.67 |
| Niclas Füllkrug |  Werder Bremen | home to Hamburger SV | 0.94 | 62% | 0.65 |
| Nathaniel Brown | Bayern Munich | home to 1. FC Köln | 0.66 | 87% | 0.59 |
| Rocco Reitz | RB Leipzig | away to Union Berlin | 0.75 | 72% | 0.58 |
Running hot
Scoring more than their chances are worth. Finishing like that rarely holds: they cost a lot and the return can drop.
| Player | Club | Goals | xG | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Niclas Füllkrug | Werder Bremen | 9 | 5.91 | +3.1 |
| Antonio Nusa | RB Leipzig | 4 | 1.69 | +2.3 |
| Igor Matanovic |  Freiburg | 4 | 2.11 | +1.9 |
| Joe Scally |  Borussia Mönchengladbach | 3 | 1.12 | +1.9 |
| Michael Olise | Bayern Munich | 6 | 4.29 | +1.7 |
| Anthony Caci |  Mainz 05 | 3 | 1.35 | +1.6 |
Owed goals
The chances are there, the goals are not. If the chance quality holds, the goals will probably come back — and they are cheap now.
| Player | Club | Goals | xG | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Kane | Bayern Munich | 4 | 6.98 | −3.0 |
| Dzenan Pejcinovic |  VfB Stuttgart | 0 | 2.69 | −2.7 |
| Ismael Saibari | Bayern Munich | 2 | 4.66 | −2.7 |
| Ezechiel Banzuzi | RB Leipzig | 1 | 3.22 | −2.2 |
| Nadiem Amiri | Mainz 05 | 0 | 2.09 | −2.1 |
| Fisnik Asllani |  Hoffenheim | 0 | 1.97 | −2.0 |
Understat data, refreshed twice a day. We do not give betting tips and we do not know about injuries or suspensions — check the line-ups.
Who to pick in Bundesliga fantasy for Round 10?
Top of our list: Ismael Saibari (Bayern Munich; opponent: 1. FC Köln, home); Harry Kane (Bayern Munich; opponent: 1. FC Köln, home); Michael Olise (Bayern Munich; opponent: 1. FC Köln, home). The list is built from a player's output per 90 minutes and the strength of his club's next match; we do not know about injuries and rotation, so check them before choosing.
How is the Bundesliga fantasy ranking calculated?
For each player we take xG and xA per 90 minutes (how much he creates and scores by chance quality) and multiply by his club's expected points in the next match divided by three. Players with at least 270 minutes are included: 79 right now. It is an assessment of play, not a forecast and not betting.
Who in Bundesliga scores more than his chances are worth?
Niclas Füllkrug (Werder Bremen) is furthest above xG: 9 goals from 5.9 xG, 3.1 more. Finishing like that usually does not hold all season, so paying a lot for such a player is risky.
Who in Bundesliga has fewer goals than his chances are worth?
Harry Kane (Bayern Munich) is furthest below xG: 4 goals from 7.0 xG, 3.0 fewer. If the chance quality holds, goals usually move toward xG, but over a handful of matches that is no guarantee.