The list comes from two things: how much a player creates per 90 minutes (xG + xA) and how favourable his club's next match is. We know nothing about injuries or rotation — this is a hint, not a line-up.
Output per 90 minutes multiplied by the points his club is expected to take in the next match.
| Player | Club | Opponent | xG+xA per 90 | Club's chance | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Olise | Bayern Munich | away to Augsburg | 1.12 | 82% | 0.96 |
| Harry Kane | Bayern Munich | away to Augsburg | 1.11 | 82% | 0.95 |
| Yuito Suzuki | Freiburg | home to Schalke 04 | 0.82 | 84% | 0.72 |
| Serhou Guirassy | Borussia Dortmund | home to Werder Bremen | 0.89 | 68% | 0.67 |
| Adam Hlozek | Hoffenheim | home to Hamburger SV | 0.70 | 77% | 0.57 |
| Alphonso Davies | Bayern Munich | away to Augsburg | 0.66 | 82% | 0.56 |
| Igor Matanovic | Freiburg | home to Schalke 04 | 0.62 | 84% | 0.54 |
| Adam Daghim | Hoffenheim | home to Hamburger SV | 0.65 | 77% | 0.53 |
| Jan-Niklas Beste | Freiburg | home to Schalke 04 | 0.59 | 84% | 0.52 |
| Joshua Kimmich | Bayern Munich | away to Augsburg | 0.59 | 82% | 0.50 |
| Antonio Nusa | RB Leipzig | home to Eintracht Frankfurt | 0.65 | 68% | 0.48 |
| Ibrahim Maza | Bayer Leverkusen | away to Mainz 05 | 0.73 | 50% | 0.42 |
Scoring more than their chances are worth. Finishing like that rarely holds: they cost a lot and the return can drop.
| Player | Club | Goals | xG | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Olise | Bayern Munich | 4 | 2.24 | +1.8 |
| Igor Matanovic | Freiburg | 3 | 1.45 | +1.6 |
| Antonio Nusa | RB Leipzig | 2 | 0.48 | +1.5 |
| Adam Daghim | Hoffenheim | 2 | 0.51 | +1.5 |
| Niclas Füllkrug | Werder Bremen | 3 | 1.54 | +1.5 |
| Yuito Suzuki | Freiburg | 4 | 2.63 | +1.4 |
The chances are there, the goals are not. If the chance quality holds, the goals come back — and they are cheap now.
| Player | Club | Goals | xG | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nadiem Amiri | Mainz 05 | 0 | 1.51 | −1.5 |
| Ezechiel Banzuzi | RB Leipzig | 0 | 1.23 | −1.2 |
| Willi Orban | RB Leipzig | 1 | 2.03 | −1.0 |
| Tom Rothe | Union Berlin | 0 | 0.96 | −1.0 |
| Afonso Moreira | Bayer Leverkusen | 0 | 0.85 | −0.8 |
| Finn Jeltsch | VfB Stuttgart | 0 | 0.84 | −0.8 |
Understat data, refreshed twice a day. We do not give betting tips and we do not know about injuries or suspensions — check the line-ups.