Freiburg vs VfB Stuttgart: match prediction

Freiburg

VS

VfB Stuttgart

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

What to expect

Freiburg are favourites: 68% to win against 16%. Attack against defence: Freiburg should create more, 2.10 expected goals a match against 1.66. Read the table with care: Freiburg have taken 2.2 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.

How they arrive

Club	Place	P	Points	xPTS	Δ	xG/match	xGA/match
Freiburg	3	9	19	16.8	+2.2	1.79	1.19
VfB Stuttgart	8	9	12	11.1	+0.9	2.12	2.42

Recent matches

Freiburg — Union Berlin 2:0Augsburg — Freiburg 1:2Freiburg — Bayern Munich 1:3Bayer Leverkusen — Freiburg 2:1Freiburg — Schalke 04 2:1

VfB Stuttgart — Werder Bremen 1:0Bayer Leverkusen — VfB Stuttgart 2:4VfB Stuttgart — Borussia M.Gladbach 2:3Hamburger SV — VfB Stuttgart 1:0Paderborn — VfB Stuttgart 0:2

Chances come from both teams' strength by xG with a home advantage; line-ups and injuries are not part of the calculation.

All Bundesliga matches with xG → · Full Bundesliga xPTS table → · Bundesliga: next round predictions