The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
Bayer Leverkusen are favourites: 68% to win against 14%. Attack against defence: Bayer Leverkusen should create more, 2.35 expected goals a match against 1.52. Hoffenheim are 2.8 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hoffenheim | 14 | 4 | 3 | 5.8 | −2.8 | 2.18 | 2.09 |
| Bayer Leverkusen | 5 | 4 | 7 | 9.6 | −2.6 | 2.61 | 0.85 |
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.
All Bundesliga matches with xG → · Full Bundesliga xPTS table →