Mainz 05 vs 1. FC Köln: match prediction
Mainz 05VS
1. FC KölnThe match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
Home win49%Mainz 05
Draw22%
Away win29%1. FC Köln
Expected points, home1.69
What to expect
A slight edge to Mainz 05: 49% against 29%. Attack against defence: level, 1.81 and 1.75 expected goals a match. 1. FC Köln are 5.0 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.
How they arrive
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mainz 05 | 12 | 9 | 10 | 14.8 | −4.8 | 2.07 | 1.74 |
| 1. FC Köln | 15 | 9 | 9 | 14.0 | −5.0 | 1.75 | 1.56 |
Recent matches
Mainz 05 — 
Bayern Munich 1:2
Elversberg — Mainz 05 4:1Mainz 05 — 
Werder Bremen 2:3
Schalke 04 — Mainz 05 0:1Mainz 05 — 
Bayer Leverkusen 3:4FC Cologne — Bayer Leverkusen 1:2
Union Berlin — FC Cologne 1:1FC Cologne — Schalke 04 0:0
Eintracht Frankfurt — FC Cologne 1:0FC Cologne — 
Borussia M.Gladbach 2:1Chances come from both teams' strength by xG with a home advantage; line-ups and injuries are not part of the calculation.
All Bundesliga matches with xG → · Full Bundesliga xPTS table → · Bundesliga: next round predictions