Pitch Radar

VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Mönchengladbach: what the numbers say

Bundesliga · Round 7 · 24 Oct 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win58%VfB Stuttgart
Draw15%
Away win27%Borussia Mönchengladbach
Expected points, home1.90

What to expect

VfB Stuttgart are favourites: 58% to win against 27%. Attack against defence: level, 2.56 and 2.44 expected goals a match. Borussia Mönchengladbach are 2.8 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
VfB Stuttgart15433.6−0.62.033.00
Borussia Mönchengladbach18402.8−2.81.873.10

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All Bundesliga matches with xG → · Full Bundesliga xPTS table →