The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
Werder Bremen are favourites: 60% to win against 21%. Attack against defence: Werder Bremen should create more, 2.13 expected goals a match against 1.71. Borussia Mönchengladbach are 3.8 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Werder Bremen | 8 | 6 | 9 | 7.2 | +1.8 | 1.47 | 1.72 |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | 18 | 5 | 0 | 3.8 | −3.8 | 1.70 | 2.79 |
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.
All Bundesliga matches with xG → · Full Bundesliga xPTS table →