Arsenal vs Bournemouth: match prediction
ArsenalVS
BournemouthThe match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
Home win43%Arsenal
Draw27%
Away win30%Bournemouth
Expected points, home1.56
What to expect
A slight edge to Arsenal: 43% against 30%. Attack against defence: level, 1.42 and 1.50 expected goals a match. Read the table with care: Arsenal have taken 8.0 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.
How they arrive
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 1 | 10 | 27 | 19.0 | +8.0 | 1.69 | 0.97 |
| Bournemouth | 7 | 10 | 15 | 18.6 | −3.6 | 2.03 | 1.15 |
Recent matches
Arsenal — 
Hull 1:0
Liverpool — Arsenal 0:1Arsenal — 
Everton 2:0
Nottingham Forest — Arsenal 0:1Arsenal — 
Leeds 2:1
Ipswich — Bournemouth 1:2Bournemouth — Leeds 2:0
Manchester United — Bournemouth 0:3Bournemouth — 
Sunderland 2:0
Chelsea — Bournemouth 5:1Chances come from both teams' strength by xG with a home advantage; line-ups and injuries are not part of the calculation.
All EPL matches with xG → · Full EPL xPTS table → · EPL: next round predictions