Brighton vs Newcastle United: match prediction
BrightonVS
Newcastle UnitedThe match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
Home win74%Brighton
Draw15%
Away win11%Newcastle United
Expected points, home2.36
What to expect
Brighton are favourites: 74% to win against 11%. Attack against defence: Brighton should create more, 2.00 expected goals a match against 1.36. Read the table with care: Brighton have taken 3.8 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.
How they arrive
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton | 2 | 10 | 22 | 18.2 | +3.8 | 2.19 | 1.48 |
| Newcastle United | 12 | 10 | 12 | 9.9 | +2.1 | 1.24 | 1.80 |
Recent matches
Brighton — 
Brentford 2:0
Manchester City — Brighton 0:1
Liverpool — Brighton 2:0Brighton — 
Crystal Palace 5:0
Sunderland — Brighton 0:2
Fulham — Newcastle United 1:1Newcastle United — 
Everton 0:1Crystal Palace — Newcastle United 0:2Newcastle United — 
Aston Villa 0:1
Coventry — Newcastle United 4:1Chances come from both teams' strength by xG with a home advantage; line-ups and injuries are not part of the calculation.
All EPL matches with xG → · Full EPL xPTS table → · EPL: next round predictions