Pitch Radar

Crystal Palace vs Liverpool: what the numbers say

EPL · Round 10 · 7 Nov 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win31%Crystal Palace
Draw23%
Away win46%Liverpool
Expected points, home1.16

What to expect

A slight edge to Liverpool: 46% against 31%. Attack against defence: Liverpool should create more, 1.82 expected goals a match against 1.46.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Crystal Palace15545.4−1.41.522.00
Liverpool6597.9+1.11.651.39

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All EPL matches with xG → · Full EPL xPTS table →