Pitch Radar

Everton vs Liverpool: what the numbers say

EPL · Round 12 · 28 Nov 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win45%Everton
Draw25%
Away win30%Liverpool
Expected points, home1.60

What to expect

A slight edge to Everton: 45% against 30%. Attack against defence: level, 1.50 and 1.50 expected goals a match.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Everton771010.4−0.41.671.48
Liverpool571210.5+1.51.511.34

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All EPL matches with xG → · Full EPL xPTS table →