Pitch Radar

Liverpool vs Brighton: what the numbers say

EPL · Round 8 · 24 Oct 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win40%Liverpool
Draw21%
Away win39%Brighton
Expected points, home1.40

What to expect

No clear favourite: 40% home, 21% draw, 39% away. Attack against defence: Brighton should create more, 1.98 expected goals a match against 1.69.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Liverpool6597.9+1.11.651.39
Brighton35109.2+0.82.581.73

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All EPL matches with xG → · Full EPL xPTS table →