The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
No clear favourite: 40% home, 24% draw, 36% away. Attack against defence: level, 1.52 and 1.67 expected goals a match. Manchester United are 2.9 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool | 9 | 6 | 9 | 8.6 | +0.4 | 1.50 | 1.42 |
| Manchester United | 13 | 6 | 6 | 8.9 | −2.9 | 1.91 | 1.54 |
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.