Newcastle United vs Sunderland: match prediction
Newcastle UnitedVS
SunderlandThe match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
Home win36%Newcastle United
Draw24%
Away win41%Sunderland
Expected points, home1.31
What to expect
No clear favourite: 36% home, 24% draw, 41% away. Attack against defence: Sunderland should create more, 1.71 expected goals a match against 1.49. Sunderland are 6.2 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.
How they arrive
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle United | 12 | 10 | 12 | 9.9 | +2.1 | 1.24 | 1.80 |
| Sunderland | 19 | 10 | 8 | 14.2 | −6.2 | 1.62 | 1.74 |
Recent matches
Fulham — Newcastle United 1:1Newcastle United — 
Everton 0:1
Crystal Palace — Newcastle United 0:2Newcastle United — 
Aston Villa 0:1
Coventry — Newcastle United 4:1Sunderland — 
Chelsea 1:0Coventry — Sunderland 3:1Sunderland — 
Leeds 0:0
Bournemouth — Sunderland 2:0Sunderland — 
Brighton 0:2Chances come from both teams' strength by xG with a home advantage; line-ups and injuries are not part of the calculation.
All EPL matches with xG → · Full EPL xPTS table → · EPL: next round predictions