Sunderland vs Nottingham Forest: match prediction
SunderlandVS
Nottingham ForestThe match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
Home win29%Sunderland
Draw24%
Away win47%Nottingham Forest
Expected points, home1.11
What to expect
A slight edge to Nottingham Forest: 47% against 29%. Attack against defence: Nottingham Forest should create more, 1.75 expected goals a match against 1.38. Nottingham Forest are 8.6 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.
How they arrive
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunderland | 19 | 10 | 8 | 14.2 | −6.2 | 1.62 | 1.74 |
| Nottingham Forest | 16 | 10 | 9 | 17.6 | −8.6 | 1.77 | 1.14 |
Recent matches
Sunderland — 
Chelsea 1:0
Coventry — Sunderland 3:1Sunderland — 
Leeds 0:0
Bournemouth — Sunderland 2:0Sunderland — 
Brighton 0:2Nottingham Forest — 
Manchester City 3:1
Brentford — Nottingham Forest 2:0
Ipswich — Nottingham Forest 1:1Nottingham Forest — 
Arsenal 0:1
Crystal Palace — Nottingham Forest 3:1Chances come from both teams' strength by xG with a home advantage; line-ups and injuries are not part of the calculation.
All EPL matches with xG → · Full EPL xPTS table → · EPL: next round predictions