The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
A slight edge to Sunderland: 45% against 32%. Attack against defence: level, 1.63 and 1.72 expected goals a match. Tottenham Hotspur are 4.7 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunderland | 19 | 7 | 4 | 8.5 | −4.5 | 1.58 | 2.13 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 20 | 6 | 3 | 7.7 | −4.7 | 1.31 | 1.68 |
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.