The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
No clear favourite: 38% home, 28% draw, 34% away. Attack against defence: Celta Vigo should create more, 1.48 expected goals a match against 1.31. Celta Vigo are 1.7 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano | 12 | 7 | 8 | 7.7 | +0.3 | 1.30 | 1.86 |
| Celta Vigo | 14 | 7 | 7 | 8.7 | −1.7 | 1.09 | 1.31 |
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.