Pitch Radar

Le Mans vs Monaco: what the numbers say

Ligue 1 · Round 10 · 7 Nov 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win37%Le Mans
Draw26%
Away win37%Monaco
Expected points, home1.37

What to expect

No clear favourite: 37% home, 26% draw, 37% away. Attack against defence: Monaco should create more, 1.66 expected goals a match against 1.44. Read the table with care: Monaco have taken 6.2 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Le Mans9565.2+0.81.562.09
Monaco15136.8+6.21.231.32

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All Ligue 1 matches with xG → · Full Ligue 1 xPTS table →