Pitch Radar

Lorient vs Brest: what the numbers say

Ligue 1 · Round 9 · 31 Oct 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win24%Lorient
Draw27%
Away win49%Brest
Expected points, home0.98

What to expect

A slight edge to Brest: 49% against 24%. Attack against defence: Brest should create more, 1.70 expected goals a match against 1.16. Brest are 4.8 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Lorient12556.4−1.41.161.23
Brest11559.8−4.82.171.16

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All Ligue 1 matches with xG → · Full Ligue 1 xPTS table →