Pitch Radar

Lorient vs Rennes: what the numbers say

Ligue 1 · Round 11 · 21 Nov 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win40%Lorient
Draw26%
Away win35%Rennes
Expected points, home1.45

What to expect

No clear favourite: 40% home, 26% draw, 35% away. Attack against defence: level, 1.54 and 1.63 expected goals a match. Read the table with care: Rennes have taken 2.5 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Lorient8687.3+0.71.051.18
Rennes65107.5+2.52.082.03

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All Ligue 1 matches with xG → · Full Ligue 1 xPTS table →