Pitch Radar

Marseille vs Le Mans: what the numbers say

Ligue 1 · Round 11 · 21 Nov 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win53%Marseille
Draw18%
Away win29%Le Mans
Expected points, home1.77

What to expect

A slight edge to Marseille: 53% against 29%. Attack against defence: level, 2.04 and 1.96 expected goals a match.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Marseille13666.7−0.71.632.24
Le Mans14665.6+0.41.672.45

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All Ligue 1 matches with xG → · Full Ligue 1 xPTS table →