Pitch Radar

Marseille vs Toulouse: what the numbers say

Ligue 1 · Round 9 · 31 Oct 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win26%Marseille
Draw18%
Away win56%Toulouse
Expected points, home0.96

What to expect

Toulouse are favourites: 56% to win against 26%. Attack against defence: Toulouse should create more, 2.28 expected goals a match against 1.68. Toulouse are 4.0 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Marseille17535.3−2.31.702.43
Toulouse13558.9−4.02.121.66

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All Ligue 1 matches with xG → · Full Ligue 1 xPTS table →