Paris FC vs Le Mans: match prediction

Ligue 1 · Round 13 · 5 Dec 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win78%Paris FC

Draw14%

Away win8%Le Mans

Expected points, home2.48

What to expect

Paris FC are favourites: 78% to win against 8%. Attack against defence: Paris FC should create more, 2.00 expected goals a match against 1.23. Paris FC are 1.6 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.

How they arrive

Club	Place	P	Points	xPTS	Δ	xG/match	xGA/match
Paris FC	6	8	14	15.6	−1.6	1.76	0.94
Le Mans	15	8	7	7.6	−0.6	1.51	2.24

Recent matches

Lens — Paris FC 2:1 Paris FC — Rennes 4:3 Lorient — Paris FC 1:0 Paris FC — Strasbourg 2:1 Paris FC — Lyon 0:0

Auxerre — Le Mans 1:1 Le Mans — Toulouse 0:3 Paris Saint-Germain — Le Mans 3:1 Le Mans — Lorient 2:1 Le Mans — Lens 2:2

Chances come from both teams' strength by xG with a home advantage; line-ups and injuries are not part of the calculation.

All Ligue 1 matches with xG → · Full Ligue 1 xPTS table → · Ligue 1: next round predictions