Pitch Radar

Rennes vs Lille: what the numbers say

Ligue 1 · Round 10 · 7 Nov 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win57%Rennes
Draw19%
Away win24%Lille
Expected points, home1.90

What to expect

Rennes are favourites: 57% to win against 24%. Attack against defence: Rennes should create more, 1.93 expected goals a match against 1.75. Read the table with care: Lille have taken 3.9 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Rennes55107.5+2.52.082.03
Lille45106.1+3.91.481.78

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All Ligue 1 matches with xG → · Full Ligue 1 xPTS table →