The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
Baltika Kaliningrad are favourites: 68% to win against 11%. Attack against defence: Baltika Kaliningrad should create more, 1.39 expected goals a match against 0.86. Baltika Kaliningrad are 5.2 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltika Kaliningrad | 8 | 9 | 11 | 16.2 | −5.2 | 1.49 | 0.85 |
| Rostov | 12 | 9 | 8 | 9.6 | −1.6 | 0.87 | 1.29 |
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.