The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
Spartak Moscow are favourites: 65% to win against 13%. Attack against defence: Spartak Moscow should create more, 1.58 expected goals a match against 0.85. Fakel Voronezh are 3.6 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fakel Voronezh | 15 | 11 | 6 | 9.6 | −3.6 | 0.85 | 1.57 |
| Spartak Moscow | 5 | 10 | 20 | 18.5 | +1.5 | 1.59 | 0.85 |
They have already met this season: Spartak Moscow 1:0 Fakel Voronezh (2026-09-16).
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.