Pitch Radar

Rostov vs Akron Tolyatti: what the numbers say

RPL · Round 10 · 10 Oct 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win39%Rostov
Draw31%
Away win31%Akron Tolyatti
Expected points, home1.47

What to expect

No clear favourite: 39% home, 31% draw, 31% away. Attack against defence: level, 1.10 and 1.13 expected goals a match. Akron Tolyatti are 1.7 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Rostov12989.6−1.60.871.29
Akron Tolyatti13989.7−1.70.971.34

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All RPL matches with xG → · Full RPL xPTS table →