The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
A slight edge to Rostov: 47% against 26%. Attack against defence: level, 1.31 and 1.17 expected goals a match. Rostov are 1.6 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rostov | 12 | 9 | 8 | 9.6 | −1.6 | 0.87 | 1.29 |
| Lokomotiv Moscow | 14 | 9 | 7 | 7.9 | −0.9 | 1.05 | 1.76 |
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.