Pitch Radar

Zenit vs Rostov: what the numbers say

RPL · Round 14 · 7 Nov 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win64%Zenit
Draw23%
Away win13%Rostov
Expected points, home2.14

What to expect

Zenit are favourites: 64% to win against 13%. Attack against defence: Zenit should create more, 1.36 expected goals a match against 0.94. Read the table with care: Zenit have taken 2.9 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Zenit591815.1+2.91.441.00
Rostov12989.6−1.60.871.29

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All RPL matches with xG → · Full RPL xPTS table →