Pitch Radar

AC Milan vs Atalanta: what the numbers say

Serie A · Round 7 · 17 Oct 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win85%AC Milan
Draw11%
Away win4%Atalanta
Expected points, home2.65

What to expect

AC Milan are favourites: 85% to win against 4%. Attack against defence: AC Milan should create more, 2.04 expected goals a match against 0.97. Read the table with care: Atalanta have taken 3.3 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
AC Milan55118.9+2.11.941.18
Atalanta11562.7+3.30.772.14

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All Serie A matches with xG → · Full Serie A xPTS table →