Pitch Radar

Atalanta vs Parma: what the numbers say

Serie A · Round 10 · 1 Nov 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win35%Atalanta
Draw31%
Away win33%Parma
Expected points, home1.38

What to expect

No clear favourite: 35% home, 31% draw, 33% away. Attack against defence: level, 1.36 and 1.50 expected goals a match. Read the table with care: Atalanta have taken 3.3 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Atalanta11562.7+3.30.772.14
Parma15543.4+0.60.851.96

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All Serie A matches with xG → · Full Serie A xPTS table →