Pitch Radar

Atalanta vs Venezia: what the numbers say

Serie A · Round 6 · 11 Oct 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win23%Atalanta
Draw21%
Away win55%Venezia
Expected points, home0.91

What to expect

Venezia are favourites: 55% to win against 23%. Attack against defence: Venezia should create more, 1.98 expected goals a match against 1.62. Venezia are 5.5 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Atalanta11562.7+3.30.772.14
Venezia20505.5−5.51.812.47

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All Serie A matches with xG → · Full Serie A xPTS table →