Pitch Radar

Bologna vs Monza: what the numbers say

Serie A · Round 10 · 1 Nov 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win41%Bologna
Draw26%
Away win34%Monza
Expected points, home1.47

What to expect

No clear favourite: 41% home, 26% draw, 34% away. Attack against defence: level, 1.46 and 1.59 expected goals a match. Bologna are 6.0 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Bologna18528.0−6.01.431.21
Monza16548.7−4.71.981.48

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All Serie A matches with xG → · Full Serie A xPTS table →