Pitch Radar

Como vs Cagliari: what the numbers say

Serie A · Round 12 · 22 Nov 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win75%Como
Draw15%
Away win10%Cagliari
Expected points, home2.39

What to expect

Como are favourites: 75% to win against 10%. Attack against defence: Como should create more, 2.04 expected goals a match against 1.36. Read the table with care: Cagliari have taken 7.0 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Como571411.9+2.12.221.68
Cagliari76136.0+7.01.041.86

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All Serie A matches with xG → · Full Serie A xPTS table →