Pitch Radar

Frosinone vs Lecce: what the numbers say

Serie A · Round 9 · 28 Oct 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win72%Frosinone
Draw14%
Away win14%Lecce
Expected points, home2.29

What to expect

Frosinone are favourites: 72% to win against 14%. Attack against defence: Frosinone should create more, 2.29 expected goals a match against 1.73. Read the table with care: Frosinone have taken 4.8 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Frosinone65105.2+4.81.622.20
Lecce12562.2+3.81.252.96

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All Serie A matches with xG → · Full Serie A xPTS table →