The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
No clear favourite: 36% home, 27% draw, 37% away. Attack against defence: level, 1.45 and 1.56 expected goals a match. Genoa are 3.6 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genoa | 19 | 5 | 1 | 4.6 | −3.6 | 0.97 | 1.58 |
| Fiorentina | 17 | 5 | 4 | 6.3 | −2.3 | 1.53 | 1.93 |
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.