Pitch Radar

Lazio vs Lecce: what the numbers say

Serie A · Round 12 · 22 Nov 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win71%Lazio
Draw16%
Away win14%Lecce
Expected points, home2.28

What to expect

Lazio are favourites: 71% to win against 14%. Attack against defence: Lazio should create more, 2.10 expected goals a match against 1.52. Read the table with care: Lazio have taken 7.4 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Lazio271911.6+7.41.721.36
Lecce11795.9+3.11.692.49

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All Serie A matches with xG → · Full Serie A xPTS table →