The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
Monza are favourites: 56% to win against 24%. Attack against defence: Monza should create more, 1.87 expected goals a match against 1.68. Fiorentina are 5.0 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monza | 14 | 7 | 7 | 10.3 | −3.3 | 1.86 | 1.76 |
| Fiorentina | 18 | 7 | 4 | 9.0 | −5.0 | 1.60 | 1.87 |
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.