Pitch Radar

Roma vs Cagliari: what the numbers say

Serie A · Round 9 · 28 Oct 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win91%Roma
Draw7%
Away win3%Cagliari
Expected points, home2.78

What to expect

Roma are favourites: 91% to win against 3%. Attack against defence: Roma should create more, 2.49 expected goals a match against 1.10. Read the table with care: Cagliari have taken 6.2 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Roma151312.4+0.63.221.11
Cagliari45125.8+6.21.091.75

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All Serie A matches with xG → · Full Serie A xPTS table →