Pitch Radar

Udinese vs Lecce: what the numbers say

Serie A · Round 7 · 17 Oct 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win66%Udinese
Draw16%
Away win17%Lecce
Expected points, home2.16

What to expect

Udinese are favourites: 66% to win against 17%. Attack against defence: Udinese should create more, 2.19 expected goals a match against 1.69. Read the table with care: Lecce have taken 3.8 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Udinese13545.0−1.01.422.12
Lecce12562.2+3.81.252.96

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All Serie A matches with xG → · Full Serie A xPTS table →