The score and the xG side by side. Where they disagree, someone rode their luck or wasted chances — and that is exactly how the season-long gap builds up.
| Match | Score | xG | Who deserved it |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal — Coventry City | 3:0 | 1.85 : 0.56 | deserved |
| Hull City — Manchester United | 2:0 | 1.50 : 1.78 | even by chances |
| Everton — Crystal Palace | 2:0 | 1.45 : 2.23 | got lucky |
| Ipswich Town — Sunderland | 2:1 | 1.58 : 1.18 | even by chances |
| Nottingham Forest — Leeds United | 0:1 | 0.66 : 0.47 | even by chances |
| Brentford — Tottenham Hotspur | 3:0 | 4.04 : 0.76 | deserved |
| Brighton — Aston Villa | 4:0 | 4.00 : 0.28 | deserved |
| Manchester City — Bournemouth | 2:1 | 2.47 : 0.71 | deserved |
| Newcastle United — Liverpool | 2:2 | 1.59 : 3.13 | dropped points |
| Fulham — Chelsea | 2:3 | 1.42 : 2.58 | deserved |
Brentford — 4.04 xG. Opponent: Tottenham Hotspur. Result: a win.
Liverpool: 3.13 xG against the opponent's 1.59. Result: a draw.