The score and the xG side by side. Where they disagree, someone rode their luck or wasted chances — and that is exactly how the season-long gap builds up.
| Match | Score | xG | Who deserved it |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace — Manchester City | 1:4 | 0.93 : 2.57 | deserved |
| Liverpool — Nottingham Forest | 2:2 | 1.28 : 2.88 | dropped points |
| Coventry City — Hull City | 0:1 | 1.18 : 0.46 | got lucky |
| Bournemouth — Everton | 1:1 | 2.26 : 1.66 | dropped points |
| Tottenham Hotspur — Newcastle United | 0:2 | 1.12 : 1.01 | even by chances |
| Sunderland — Fulham | 1:0 | 1.56 : 1.02 | deserved |
| Chelsea — Brighton | 4:3 | 3.83 : 1.79 | deserved |
| Leeds United — Brentford | 1:1 | 1.15 : 1.61 | even by chances |
| Manchester United — Ipswich Town | 5:2 | 4.87 : 1.81 | deserved |
| Aston Villa — Arsenal | 0:1 | 0.28 : 1.52 | deserved |
Manchester United — 4.87 xG. Opponent: Ipswich Town. Result: a win.
Nottingham Forest: 2.88 xG against the opponent's 1.28. Result: a draw.