The table shows the result, xPTS shows the quality of play. Below both clubs sit side by side on every metric: where the gap is real and where luck made it.
| Arsenal | Chelsea | |
|---|---|---|
| Place | 2 | 5 |
| Points | 15 | 10 |
| xPTS | 12 | 7.2 |
| Δ points − xPTS | +3.0 | +2.8 |
| xG per match | 1.96 | 1.72 |
| xGA per match | 1.11 | 2 |
| Scored | 10 | 15 |
| Conceded | 5 | 13 |
By quality of play Arsenal is ahead: 12.0 xPTS against 7.2. In the table the gap is 5 points. The gap between points and play — Arsenal: +3.0, Chelsea: +2.8.
Expected points over the coming rounds: Arsenal — 9.1, Chelsea — 6.3.