The table shows the result, xPTS shows the quality of play. Below both clubs sit side by side on every metric: where the gap is real and where luck made it.
| Aston Villa | Crystal Palace | |
|---|---|---|
| Place | 14 | 15 |
| Points | 5 | 4 |
| xPTS | 5.8 | 5.4 |
| Δ points − xPTS | −0.8 | −1.4 |
| xG per match | 1.14 | 1.52 |
| xGA per match | 2.02 | 2 |
| Scored | 6 | 6 |
| Conceded | 11 | 11 |
By quality of play they are level: 5.8 xPTS against 5.4. The gap between points and play — Aston Villa: −0.8, Crystal Palace: −1.4.
Expected points over the coming rounds: Aston Villa — 4.5, Crystal Palace — 5.5.