The table shows the result, xPTS shows the quality of play. Below both clubs sit side by side on every metric: where the gap is real and where luck made it.
| Nottingham Forest | Aston Villa | |
|---|---|---|
| Place | 13 | 14 |
| Points | 5 | 5 |
| xPTS | 9.2 | 5.8 |
| Δ points − xPTS | −4.2 | −0.8 |
| xG per match | 1.7 | 1.14 |
| xGA per match | 1 | 2.02 |
| Scored | 4 | 6 |
| Conceded | 5 | 11 |
By quality of play Nottingham Forest is ahead: 9.2 xPTS against 5.8. In the table they are level. The gap between points and play — Nottingham Forest: −4.2, Aston Villa: −0.8.
Expected points over the coming rounds: Nottingham Forest — 8.5, Aston Villa — 4.5.