The table shows the result, xPTS shows the quality of play. Below both clubs sit side by side on every metric: where the gap is real and where luck made it.
| Toulouse | Brest | |
|---|---|---|
| Place | 7 | 8 |
| Points | 9 | 8 |
| xPTS | 13 | 12.6 |
| Δ points − xPTS | −4.0 | −4.6 |
| xG per match | 2.01 | 2.48 |
| xGA per match | 1.45 | 1.16 |
| Scored | 12 | 12 |
| Conceded | 11 | 9 |
By quality of play they are level: 13.0 xPTS against 12.6. The gap between points and play — Toulouse: −4.0, Brest: −4.6.
Expected points over the coming rounds: Toulouse — 9.5, Brest — 10.7.