The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
A slight edge to Bayer Leverkusen: 53% against 21%. Attack against defence: Bayer Leverkusen should create more, 1.81 expected goals a match against 1.51. Bayer Leverkusen are 2.6 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer Leverkusen | 5 | 4 | 7 | 9.6 | −2.6 | 2.61 | 0.85 |
| Freiburg | 3 | 4 | 10 | 8.8 | +1.2 | 2.16 | 1.01 |
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.
All Bundesliga matches with xG → · Full Bundesliga xPTS table →