Bayern Munich vs Werder Bremen: match prediction

Bayern Munich

VS

Werder Bremen

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

What to expect

Bayern Munich are favourites: 88% to win against 4%. Attack against defence: Bayern Munich should create more, 2.58 expected goals a match against 1.23. Bayern Munich are 3.8 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.

How they arrive

Club	Place	P	Points	xPTS	Δ	xG/match	xGA/match
Bayern Munich	1	9	21	24.8	−3.8	3.59	0.86
Werder Bremen	6	9	15	12.4	+2.6	1.59	1.56

Recent matches

Mainz 05 — Bayern Munich 1:2Bayern Munich — Borussia Dortmund 2:2Freiburg — Bayern Munich 1:3Bayern Munich — RasenBallsport Leipzig 6:1Augsburg — Bayern Munich 2:2

VfB Stuttgart — Werder Bremen 1:0Werder Bremen — Hoffenheim 2:0Mainz 05 — Werder Bremen 2:3Werder Bremen — Paderborn 2:2Borussia Dortmund — Werder Bremen 2:2

Chances come from both teams' strength by xG with a home advantage; line-ups and injuries are not part of the calculation.

All Bundesliga matches with xG → · Full Bundesliga xPTS table → · Bundesliga: next round predictions