The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
No clear favourite: 40% home, 27% draw, 33% away. Attack against defence: Bayer Leverkusen should create more, 1.78 expected goals a match against 1.57. Read the table with care: Borussia Dortmund have taken 2.0 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund | 2 | 6 | 14 | 12.0 | +2.0 | 2.03 | 1.01 |
| Bayer Leverkusen | 4 | 5 | 10 | 11.1 | −1.1 | 2.55 | 1.12 |
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.
All Bundesliga matches with xG → · Full Bundesliga xPTS table →